Interesting article by Rick Maese at SI.com about Donte Greene who came out early from Syracuse despite warnings that the NBA is not as easy as it appears to be.
Check it out here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/basketball/ncaa/06/17/greene/index.html
A few interesting excerpts:
-"Man, it was crazy," Greene says of his rookie year. "Just nothing like I expected."
-"To see him (Griffin) in that position, you think, what if I would've stayed? Where would I be?" says Greene. "I could still be with the Kings, but would I be a top-5 pick? There've been lots of what-ifs. Especially when you're not playing, you got all that time to think. And I loved college so much, loved Coach [Jim] Boeheim. I just keep telling myself, this is what you wanted, you wanted to be in this spot. Keep working."
-Last year, 69 underclassmen filed as early-entry candidates. Of those, 29 were drafted while 10 others never heard their name called (30 others withdrew from the draft and returned to school).
-"These young guys, they get all this attention, everyone telling them they're good, and they listen to it. So they come out because they want to be stars," says Ryan Blake, the NBA's assistant director of scouting.
A lot of them don't make it.
-This year, more than 60 college players filed as early-entrants and as of Monday's deadline 39 stayed in to try for one of the precious few NBA jobs that open up each year.
-"They have so many people in their ear, I don't know what they listen to," he says. "We really don't know."
-"He used to be the guy who was always playing around, joking. I mean, he's still that same guy, but he's got to work out more, keep his body right, spend time with his family, do all these things. This is real life now, you know?"
-"I don't want to settle with just being in the NBA. I want to use the NBA and what the NBA gives me and make a name for myself."
-Greene has given the matter a lot of thought. If a player isn't absolutely certain he's a lottery pick, Greene knows exactly what he'd advise.
"I would say stay in school," he says. "What guys got to understand, when you come out of school, you're not a kid no more. You got to grow up fast. I was 20 -- not a baby but still kind of young. I wasn't even paying my own phone bill, wasn't paying taxes, none of that. Man, you got to grow up fast."
-Greene chuckles when he's reminded that his advice is exactly what his Syracuse coaches tried telling him just one year ago. "I guess sometimes you just never know how things will turn out," he says.
6.19.2009
MAKING THE NBA: THE ODDS BASED ON THE HIGH SCHOOL RANKINGS
I RECENTLY STUDIED THE COMPOSITE RANKINGS OF HIGH SCHOOL KIDS AND FOUND SOME INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT MAKING THE NBA AND THE CORRELATION TO THE RANKINGS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE BEST PART OF THE STUDY IS THE CHARTS WHICH DIDN'T TRANSFER INTO BLOG CORRECTLY.
Part of what makes basketball an extraordinarily complex sport is the meshing of unique individuals into a team. Hour upon hours are spent giving each player a ball and encouraging them to work on refining his game. Then we take away all the balls, put 5 players out there together, give them 1 basketball to share, and discourage the individual from applying much of the work he’s done until just the right moment. More than any other sport the paradox that is the sacrifice of individualism but the promotion of production provides constant coaching attention to individual ego vs. team cohesion management. Now more than ever keeping a handle on kids’ state of mind can be the key to getting the most out of a player’s production.
While I admire the ambition and goal chasing of young players, one of the biggest self-obstructing prophecies of the modern high school basketball player is chasing the NBA dream. Too often in our level, and the college level of grassroots basketball, players have to overcome their individual wants and the wants of those surrounding the kids. What we see happening is that some players and those influencing him is a lack of focus on the present. Becoming fixated on NBA dreams is great but not at the expense of the journey to get there. There becomes a separation between those that choose to keep searching for the light at the end of tunnel and those that put their head down and keeps digging. Therein lays the answer to why I took at look at these numbers.
This generation of players and the generation of adults that these players rely on make up the show-me-first-then-I’ll-believe-you era. The days of trusting coaches and authority figures because of the position are becoming scarce. Kids don’t care how much you know unless they know how much you care and even then you better know your facts. Fact is very few of the hundreds of NBA dreams I’ve heard kids and their circles talk about are going to come true. Furthermore all the talk of the one-and-done kid here and there is really reaching for the stars. This study is my educated answer to emphasize what it takes to get there and to provide maybe something a guide for those searching for the light at the end of tunnel but don’t like to dig.
What I did here is take a look at the high school classes starting with Dwight Howards graduating class of 2004 and ending with a peak at 2008’s class. For the study I used the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) web site. They best explain what they on their site:
RSCI is intended to help you make sense out of the various top 50 or top 100 rankings of the nation's best high school basketball players. It combines the rankings from well known recruiting experts into a single, consensus ranking.
Using their composite rankings, first I took a look at the number of kids currently in the NBA from each class overall. Secondly, you’ll see the breakdown of underclassmen making the NBA from each of the classes whether it be straight from high school (pre-rule change), one and done, or after two years of college. Lastly, I hit on the overwhelming transfer statistics from top 100 ranked kids. Essentially this snap shot of the past 5 high school classes provides a general study of what currently is (and probably fairly accurately indicates what will be) the distribution of players from high school to college to NBA in a normal four year progression. There were certainly judgment calls in some cases and there certainly is a margin for error but the general picture is intact.
(due to the transfer you will have to read the data down from '04 to '08 for each ranking classifcation)
PLAYERS IN THE NBA PER CLASS
High School Class
2004 (Howard)
2005 (Green)
2006 (Oden)
2007 (Mayo)
2008 (Jennings)
Players in the NBA
Ranked 1-15
12
11
9
11
5 Potential Draft Picks
Ranked 16-20
2
2
1
1
Ranked 21-40
9
1
2
0
Ranked 41-60
1
2
0
0
Ranked 61-80
2
0
1
0
Ranked 81-100
4
0
0
0
Players in NBA
30
16
13
12
Potential to be drafted
1
9
?
?
(As of 6/5/09)
From the chart, the 2004 class would be one year removed from 4 years of college this season. The 2005 class should be graduating and using up their eligibility for this years draft. The 2006 class, which was the first year of the new 19 plus one draft rule, should be completing their junior year of college. The 2007 class is likely completing their sophomore campaign and the 2008 class is becoming eligible for the NBA draft for the first time as they complete their freshman year.
Based on the data, 43 of the 60 top 15 ranked kids are in the NBA between ’04-’07. Of the 17 that are not there, there are a number that still may make it such as Hansbrough and several of the ’07 class.
The players ranked 16-20 include 6 of 20 making the NBA thus far.
The 80 players ranked 21-40 produced 11 players so far with 9 of those from the 2004 class that should have used its college eligibility up before the ’08 draft. The ’05 class produced only Brandon Rush in this range with no glaring projected draft picks remaining.
The players ranked 41-60 out of high school has produced 3 players out of 80 that have just completed their eligibility or remain draft eligible.
The 61-80 ranked players have produced 3 out of 80 as well. While the 81 through 100 ranking produced 4 players in 2004 and no one since.
What Does It Mean?
First, the elite kids get their quicker. No shock there but it is worth noting the scouts nail these top 15 kids pretty well in terms of pro potential. The drop off is steep and beyond the upper level you better be prepared to work and take some time. Secondly, the 2005 is glaringly bad. Is it maybe the worst ever? Four years later that class is going to struggle to put 20 players in the NBA and outside of Andrew Bynum there is little to look at and it produced zero top 5 picks. Interestingly, the 61st to 100th ranked kids have produced 1 NBA player from ’05 class to the ’07 class. Some still have time but again the moral of the story is that it’s not so easy!
Obviously as players continue to graduate or excel and leave early the numbers will grow but the current snap shot shows how hard it is to be a one and done, two and done, declare early at all, or flat out make it to the NBA regardless of ranking. As I said in the intro, this chart essentially provides a snap shot of the past 5 high school classes provides a general synopsis of what is and probably fairly closely what will be the breakdown of players that make it from a normal high school to college to NBA four year progression.
FACTS
Overall from the ’04 to ’07 four year window, the current snapshot shows 17.8% (71 of 400) players in the NBA. On the flip side, from these four years of graduates to freshmen there are 329 of 400 not in the NBA or 82.2%!
Of the 71 in the NBA, 43 were top 15 ranked kids. So Top 15 ranked kids have a great shot with 71.7% (43 of 60) so far in the league from these years and looking at those with eligibility remaining that number will go up. Only 28 players ranked 16-100 have made it which makes the rate 8.8% (28 of 320). The 28 will certainly go up but there are much more long shots and harder to predict.
What Does It Mean?
In other words, the average year of the past 4 high school classes would see 11 of the top 15 kids in the NBA and only 7 out of the other 85 kids ranked in the top 100. That means the other 78 or so of the 85 players are still trying or moving on.
UNDERCLASSMAN DECLARING EARLY CHANCES
High School Class
2004 (Howard)
2005 (Green)
2006 (Oden)
2007 (Mayo)
4 Year Totals
Straight to NBA (ended after '05)
8 (8%)
9 (9%)
17/200 (8.5%)
One and Done
1 (1%)
1 (1%)
8 (8%)
12 (12%)
22/400 (5.5%)
Two and Done
7 (7%)
4 (4%)
7 (7%)
TRANSFER STATS
Transfers
20/89 (22.5%)
32/90 (35.6%)
26/92 (28.3%)
19/88 (21.6%)
97/359 (27.0%)
Top 20 Transfers
0/20 (0%)
`1/20 (5%)
2/20 (10%)
0/20 (0%)
3/80 (0.4%)
Rank 21-100 Transfers
20/78 (25.6%)
31/78 (39.8%)
24/79 (30.4%)
19/80 (23.8%)
94/320 (29.4%)
FACTS
If you are not a top 14 ranked kid you better plan to be in college for at least three years and you best opportunity is to stay all four years of college. From 2004, 2005, 2006 high school classes only 27 out of 448 top 150 ranked kids went pro in 1 or less years and only 26 stuck in the NBA at length. Of those 27, 23 were ranked in the top 17. If you take out Puerto Rican born Ricky Sanchez who went pro out of the IMG academy and did not stick in the league and the chances of being able to go to the NBA as a “one and done” are essentially ZERO if you were ranked below #26.
2004-2006 One and Done Percentage for Top 150 Ranked Player
Overall: 5.8% (26 of 448)
Top 17 Rank: 45.1% (23 of 51)
18-27 Rank: 10% (3 out of 30)
28-150 Rank: 0% (0 out of 369 made it in after 1 year of college)
What Does It Mean?
About 8 players per class are good enough to be one and done players. Of those 8 players all but 1 kid per year is a top 17 player. If you are ranked between 18 and 27 there’s about a 1 in 10 chance you are good enough. If you are ranked below 27, you’re probably staying in college for at least two years but probably 3 or 4.
2004-2006 Two years of College or Less Percentage for Top 150 Ranked Player
(Includes pros out of High School, does not include Ricky Sanchez and Marcus Williams who did not stick in the league)
Overall: 9.6% (43 of 448)
Top 22 Rank: 50% (33 of 66)
23-37 Rank: 11.1% (5 out of 45) (Wright, Augustin, Lowery, Simmons, Williams)
38-150 Rank: 1.47% (5 out of 339) (Speights, Westbrook, Anderson, Chandler, Thomas)
What Does it Mean?
Only about 14 kids out of each class are going to be able to have the letters NBA next to their name after their sophomore year. This includes those that are one and done players. Of those 14 kids that make it, 11 are going to be top 22 ranked kids with most ranked in the top 10. 2 are going to be guys ranked between 23 to 37. Out of the rest of the class ranked 28 to 150 there’s only going to be 1 (maybe 2 if your lucky) that make it within 2 years so it’s a 1 out of a 100 shot!
BUT IF YOU ARE A TOP 15 KID THERE IS GOOD NEWS
Dorell Wright in 2004 (#26) went out of high school, Amir Johnson (#17) and Ricky Sanchez (#73) in 2005, Mike Conley in 2006 (#22), and Anthony Randolph (#16) in 2007 were the only non top 14 kids out of 39 total kids that spent zero or one year in college before going pro. Over this 4 year study, of the players ranked in the top 14 there was a 60.7% chance to make it to the NBA in one or less years (32 of 56 players total).
If you are a top 10 player, your chances improve even more. From 2004 to 2007 the only busts appear to be Malik Hairston, Richard Hendrix and Paul Harris and many of the 2008 prospects are likely NBA players.
The top 15 ranked kids NBA success breakdown is as follows (includes surefire 2009 picks):
2002 10 of 15
2003 11 of 15
2004 12 of 15
2005 12 of 15
2006 13 of 14 (Sherron Collins returning to Kansas)
2007 11 of 11 (4 possibly returning to school)
2008 5 of 5 (10 returning to school)
What Does It Mean?
Of the 90 top 15 candidates that have declared or used up eligibility, 74 have made it to the NBA for a solid duration. That is 82.2% rate. This is quite a testament to the talent evaluators and scouting service folks. Often these scouts have an eye for these elite caliber players from very early years.
FACTS
SENIORS STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO BE DRAFTED!
Jonathon Givoney, the draft guru over at DraftExpress said it best:
“Like it or not, it’s the NCAA seniors that still make up the majority of every NBA draft class. Over the last 14 drafts, there have been 822 total players selected. Of those, 379, or 46%, were seniors. This isn’t just a recent trend—last year 19 of the 60 players drafted were NCAA seniors.”
The reality is that in the eyes of the people that are professionals at what they do, very few but the elite young player is good enough to compete with mature players whether it be at the college level or the NBA level. Based on the statistics from the last 14 years, you could expect that about 28 of the 60 players picked in the NBA Draft will be seniors.
While the recent explosions from freshmen in the past coupe years, the exceptional frosh is just that…an exception to the norm. From the 2008-09 NCAA division 1 college basketball season 32 of 50 top scorers in the country were seniors. 10 were juniors. So 84% of the leading collegiate scoring averages were from upper classmen. Only 7 sophomores and exactly 1 freshman made the list. That lone freshman, Seth Curry, transferred from Liberty to Duke and will sit out this coming year. Of the top 50 leaders in assists, 35 were upperclassmen. College coaches know what they are doing and experience on the court is essential.
CLASS BY CLASS BREAKDOWN
The 2004 class saw 8 players go straight to the league including 7 of the top 9 ranked kids. Only Dorrell Wright at 26 was able to skip college outside the elite level of kids. Marvin Williams at top 10 kid was the only 1 and done. Aundray Blatche and Shawne Williams reclassified making the class totals taken out of 98 since they were included in 2005. Seven kids left after their sophomore year including non-top 20 kids Kyle Lowery and Cedric Simmons. 20 of the 78 kids ranked between 21 and 100 that did not jump to the league or reclassify ended up transferring.
In the 2005 class, 9 went straight to the NBA without going to college with 8 of those being in the top 17. Only international player Ricky Sanchez, who was ranked 73rd, was outside the top core of players to declare. Only 1, Shawne Williams, went pro after a year in college. 4 kids were able to turn pro after their sophomore year, two of which were in the top 8 while#30 Marcus Williams hasn’t stuck after declaring after his sophomore year. #59 Wilson Chandler has stuck on after his 2 year college career. 32 transferred including 31 of the 21st to 100th ranked players.
In 2006 class, eight players were 1 and done players with the new draft rules in effect. Only 1 was outside of the top 14 which was Mike Conley #22. Of the 79 players ranked 21 to 100 that were not in the draft, 24 ultimately transferred or left their school. 7 kids spent 2 years in college and made it to the NBA, 3 of which were top 20 kids, 1 ranked 30, 1 ranked 61 and two major surprises in #114 Russell Westbrook and #150 Ryan Anderson.
In the 2007 class, 12 players were 1 and done with the 1 year of college duty served. All 12 were in the top 16 ranked kids. In the two seasons this class has spent in college, 19 of the 88 kids that did not go pro have already transferred. All 19 were ranked between 28 and 100.
Straight to the League Players
Of the last groups of straight to the NBA guys the cream of the crop of 2004 is Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, and Josh Smith while 2005s best is Andrew Bynum. Of the 17 total players most are role guys and Ricky Sanchez is out of the league.
One and Done Players
All of the 22 one-and-dones over the past 4 drafts have stuck in the league thus far. Between 2004 and 2007 classes, 22 players went after one season and all of those were top 17 kids coming out of high school except Mike Conley who was ranked #22. The average rank for the 22 one and done players is approximately 8th and that includes Mike Conley whose 22 ranking was the only players ranked below 17.
Two and Done Players
Between 2004 thru 2006, there were only 18 sophomores to make it off the lists and 17 made it thus far. Of the ones that made it, 10 were ranked in the top 22 of their respective classes, 3 were ranked 22-37, 2 were 59/61, and 2 were 114/150. All 7 were top 37 in 2004, all 3 of 4 were top 30 in 2005 along with #59, and in 2006 four were top 30, 1 was 61 and two long shot kids made it from at 114 and 150. 2005’s #30 ranked Marcus Williams is out of the league.
CHANCES OF TRANSFERRING
The chances of top 100 kids transferring are staggering. The chart below shows the underclassmen declaring numbers as well as the transfer stats. Just as the number of pros increases with time so does the number of transfers so these numbers will go up.
High School Class
2004 (Howard)
2005 (Green)
2006 (Oden)
2007 (Mayo)
4 Year Totals
Straight to NBA (’04-’05)
8 (8%)
9 (9%)
17/200 (8.5%)
One and Done
1 (1%)
1 (1%)
8 (8%)
12 (12%)
22/400 (5.5%)
Two and Done
7 (7%)
4 (4%)
7 (7%)
TRANSFER STATS
Transfers
20/89 (22.5%)
32/90 (35.6%)
26/92 (28.3%)
19/88 (21.6%)
97/359 (27.0%)
Top 20 Transfers
0/20 (0%)
1/20 (5%)
2/20 (10%)
0/20 (0%)
3/80 (0.4%)
Rank 21-100 Transfers
20/78 (25.6%)
31/78 (39.8%)
24/79 (30.4%)
19/80 (23.8%)
94/320 (29.4%)
The class of ’05 which should be finishing their final year of college had 32 of 100 kids transfer.
The rising seniors have 26 while the junior-to-be class has 19. Several of the kids are multiple school transfers.
FACTS
3 out of 80 (.04%) or less than a half percent of top 20 ranked kids transferred from the ’04 to ’07 high school classes.
Over the players ranked 21-100, 29.4% (94 of 320) have transferred or are no longer at their school for reasons that are not the NBA.
What Does It Mean?
If you take the average class from the last four years, it’s doubtful any of the top 20 kids will transfer. Likely around 24 of the 80 kids ranked 21-100 will not be at their original school.
FACTS
Of the 80 kids ranked 1-20: 49 are in the NBA compared to 3 that transferred.
Of the 320 kids ranked 21-100: 22 are in the NBA compared to 94 that transferred.
What Does It Mean?
If you take the average class from the last four years, 12 of the Top 20 is in the NBA with maybe 1 kid transferring. From the 21-100 range, about 5 out of the 80 kids would be in the NBA with 23 having left their school.
CONCLUSION
What do all these numbers get at?
First I think the top 15 kids are likely to make it. The numbers support it.
Second, the rest of the field has an uphill battle for very, very few spots. The average year shows 78 out of 85 kids from the average class that’s currently in their four year college window are not in the NBA.
Third, I think the talk of being in the NBA as a one-and-done or even leaving after two years is something that should be kept in perspective. Fact is that kids that are ranked between 28 and 150 have about a 1% chance of seeing the NBA draft by the time their sophomore year is over and basically no chance of being a one and done. About 11 of the top 22 in a given class will be in the NBA by the end of their sophomore year and 3 of the kids in the 22-28 range. Beyond that you are a very rare sleeper such as Russell Westbrook or Ryan Anderson.
Fourth, college upper classmen produce the statistical leaders in college basketball and comprise 41% of the players drafted in the last 14 years.
Fifth, if you are not an elite top 20 player the numbers show that you are far more likely to transfer than to be in the NBA. The average makeup of a class in their four year college window would have 23 transfers to 5 NBA players and 52 still with their college team for the 80 kids ranked 21-100. The elite kids will likely have 12 in the NBA with 7 or 8 still working toward it with 1 transfer every other year.
What is the Lesson?
Make the NBA a byproduct of successes at each level. Take advantage of the present and be the best asset you can be where you are at. Looking ahead and micromanaging the system for kids as teenagers is unlikely to get them there. Learning to play the game the right way and putting in the honest work for the right reason should be priority for young players. Competition should bring out the best in players and be all the motivation a true player needs. Teaching humility and perseverance is likely to take a kid much further than self promotion and quitting for greener pastures. Guaranteed starting spots, personal stat driven motives, and me-first agendas are counterproductive in the long run.
More and more scouts and personnel directors are looking for winners and high character, low risk athletes. There is a fine line that separates so many athletes on the court but the statistics show many eliminate themselves because they can’t cut it in the classroom, have off the court issues, can’t handle competition, or get the rap as a bad teammate.
It is likely for a different study at a different time but few American JUCO players make it. Very few of the 94 transfers in the 4 years studied here have made it. As I’ll tell our kids, the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t coming to you. Don’t blame the light and don’t blame the tunnel, put your head down and dig harder.
Part of what makes basketball an extraordinarily complex sport is the meshing of unique individuals into a team. Hour upon hours are spent giving each player a ball and encouraging them to work on refining his game. Then we take away all the balls, put 5 players out there together, give them 1 basketball to share, and discourage the individual from applying much of the work he’s done until just the right moment. More than any other sport the paradox that is the sacrifice of individualism but the promotion of production provides constant coaching attention to individual ego vs. team cohesion management. Now more than ever keeping a handle on kids’ state of mind can be the key to getting the most out of a player’s production.
While I admire the ambition and goal chasing of young players, one of the biggest self-obstructing prophecies of the modern high school basketball player is chasing the NBA dream. Too often in our level, and the college level of grassroots basketball, players have to overcome their individual wants and the wants of those surrounding the kids. What we see happening is that some players and those influencing him is a lack of focus on the present. Becoming fixated on NBA dreams is great but not at the expense of the journey to get there. There becomes a separation between those that choose to keep searching for the light at the end of tunnel and those that put their head down and keeps digging. Therein lays the answer to why I took at look at these numbers.
This generation of players and the generation of adults that these players rely on make up the show-me-first-then-I’ll-believe-you era. The days of trusting coaches and authority figures because of the position are becoming scarce. Kids don’t care how much you know unless they know how much you care and even then you better know your facts. Fact is very few of the hundreds of NBA dreams I’ve heard kids and their circles talk about are going to come true. Furthermore all the talk of the one-and-done kid here and there is really reaching for the stars. This study is my educated answer to emphasize what it takes to get there and to provide maybe something a guide for those searching for the light at the end of tunnel but don’t like to dig.
What I did here is take a look at the high school classes starting with Dwight Howards graduating class of 2004 and ending with a peak at 2008’s class. For the study I used the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) web site. They best explain what they on their site:
RSCI is intended to help you make sense out of the various top 50 or top 100 rankings of the nation's best high school basketball players. It combines the rankings from well known recruiting experts into a single, consensus ranking.
Using their composite rankings, first I took a look at the number of kids currently in the NBA from each class overall. Secondly, you’ll see the breakdown of underclassmen making the NBA from each of the classes whether it be straight from high school (pre-rule change), one and done, or after two years of college. Lastly, I hit on the overwhelming transfer statistics from top 100 ranked kids. Essentially this snap shot of the past 5 high school classes provides a general study of what currently is (and probably fairly accurately indicates what will be) the distribution of players from high school to college to NBA in a normal four year progression. There were certainly judgment calls in some cases and there certainly is a margin for error but the general picture is intact.
(due to the transfer you will have to read the data down from '04 to '08 for each ranking classifcation)
PLAYERS IN THE NBA PER CLASS
High School Class
2004 (Howard)
2005 (Green)
2006 (Oden)
2007 (Mayo)
2008 (Jennings)
Players in the NBA
Ranked 1-15
12
11
9
11
5 Potential Draft Picks
Ranked 16-20
2
2
1
1
Ranked 21-40
9
1
2
0
Ranked 41-60
1
2
0
0
Ranked 61-80
2
0
1
0
Ranked 81-100
4
0
0
0
Players in NBA
30
16
13
12
Potential to be drafted
1
9
?
?
(As of 6/5/09)
From the chart, the 2004 class would be one year removed from 4 years of college this season. The 2005 class should be graduating and using up their eligibility for this years draft. The 2006 class, which was the first year of the new 19 plus one draft rule, should be completing their junior year of college. The 2007 class is likely completing their sophomore campaign and the 2008 class is becoming eligible for the NBA draft for the first time as they complete their freshman year.
Based on the data, 43 of the 60 top 15 ranked kids are in the NBA between ’04-’07. Of the 17 that are not there, there are a number that still may make it such as Hansbrough and several of the ’07 class.
The players ranked 16-20 include 6 of 20 making the NBA thus far.
The 80 players ranked 21-40 produced 11 players so far with 9 of those from the 2004 class that should have used its college eligibility up before the ’08 draft. The ’05 class produced only Brandon Rush in this range with no glaring projected draft picks remaining.
The players ranked 41-60 out of high school has produced 3 players out of 80 that have just completed their eligibility or remain draft eligible.
The 61-80 ranked players have produced 3 out of 80 as well. While the 81 through 100 ranking produced 4 players in 2004 and no one since.
What Does It Mean?
First, the elite kids get their quicker. No shock there but it is worth noting the scouts nail these top 15 kids pretty well in terms of pro potential. The drop off is steep and beyond the upper level you better be prepared to work and take some time. Secondly, the 2005 is glaringly bad. Is it maybe the worst ever? Four years later that class is going to struggle to put 20 players in the NBA and outside of Andrew Bynum there is little to look at and it produced zero top 5 picks. Interestingly, the 61st to 100th ranked kids have produced 1 NBA player from ’05 class to the ’07 class. Some still have time but again the moral of the story is that it’s not so easy!
Obviously as players continue to graduate or excel and leave early the numbers will grow but the current snap shot shows how hard it is to be a one and done, two and done, declare early at all, or flat out make it to the NBA regardless of ranking. As I said in the intro, this chart essentially provides a snap shot of the past 5 high school classes provides a general synopsis of what is and probably fairly closely what will be the breakdown of players that make it from a normal high school to college to NBA four year progression.
FACTS
Overall from the ’04 to ’07 four year window, the current snapshot shows 17.8% (71 of 400) players in the NBA. On the flip side, from these four years of graduates to freshmen there are 329 of 400 not in the NBA or 82.2%!
Of the 71 in the NBA, 43 were top 15 ranked kids. So Top 15 ranked kids have a great shot with 71.7% (43 of 60) so far in the league from these years and looking at those with eligibility remaining that number will go up. Only 28 players ranked 16-100 have made it which makes the rate 8.8% (28 of 320). The 28 will certainly go up but there are much more long shots and harder to predict.
What Does It Mean?
In other words, the average year of the past 4 high school classes would see 11 of the top 15 kids in the NBA and only 7 out of the other 85 kids ranked in the top 100. That means the other 78 or so of the 85 players are still trying or moving on.
UNDERCLASSMAN DECLARING EARLY CHANCES
High School Class
2004 (Howard)
2005 (Green)
2006 (Oden)
2007 (Mayo)
4 Year Totals
Straight to NBA (ended after '05)
8 (8%)
9 (9%)
17/200 (8.5%)
One and Done
1 (1%)
1 (1%)
8 (8%)
12 (12%)
22/400 (5.5%)
Two and Done
7 (7%)
4 (4%)
7 (7%)
TRANSFER STATS
Transfers
20/89 (22.5%)
32/90 (35.6%)
26/92 (28.3%)
19/88 (21.6%)
97/359 (27.0%)
Top 20 Transfers
0/20 (0%)
`1/20 (5%)
2/20 (10%)
0/20 (0%)
3/80 (0.4%)
Rank 21-100 Transfers
20/78 (25.6%)
31/78 (39.8%)
24/79 (30.4%)
19/80 (23.8%)
94/320 (29.4%)
FACTS
If you are not a top 14 ranked kid you better plan to be in college for at least three years and you best opportunity is to stay all four years of college. From 2004, 2005, 2006 high school classes only 27 out of 448 top 150 ranked kids went pro in 1 or less years and only 26 stuck in the NBA at length. Of those 27, 23 were ranked in the top 17. If you take out Puerto Rican born Ricky Sanchez who went pro out of the IMG academy and did not stick in the league and the chances of being able to go to the NBA as a “one and done” are essentially ZERO if you were ranked below #26.
2004-2006 One and Done Percentage for Top 150 Ranked Player
Overall: 5.8% (26 of 448)
Top 17 Rank: 45.1% (23 of 51)
18-27 Rank: 10% (3 out of 30)
28-150 Rank: 0% (0 out of 369 made it in after 1 year of college)
What Does It Mean?
About 8 players per class are good enough to be one and done players. Of those 8 players all but 1 kid per year is a top 17 player. If you are ranked between 18 and 27 there’s about a 1 in 10 chance you are good enough. If you are ranked below 27, you’re probably staying in college for at least two years but probably 3 or 4.
2004-2006 Two years of College or Less Percentage for Top 150 Ranked Player
(Includes pros out of High School, does not include Ricky Sanchez and Marcus Williams who did not stick in the league)
Overall: 9.6% (43 of 448)
Top 22 Rank: 50% (33 of 66)
23-37 Rank: 11.1% (5 out of 45) (Wright, Augustin, Lowery, Simmons, Williams)
38-150 Rank: 1.47% (5 out of 339) (Speights, Westbrook, Anderson, Chandler, Thomas)
What Does it Mean?
Only about 14 kids out of each class are going to be able to have the letters NBA next to their name after their sophomore year. This includes those that are one and done players. Of those 14 kids that make it, 11 are going to be top 22 ranked kids with most ranked in the top 10. 2 are going to be guys ranked between 23 to 37. Out of the rest of the class ranked 28 to 150 there’s only going to be 1 (maybe 2 if your lucky) that make it within 2 years so it’s a 1 out of a 100 shot!
BUT IF YOU ARE A TOP 15 KID THERE IS GOOD NEWS
Dorell Wright in 2004 (#26) went out of high school, Amir Johnson (#17) and Ricky Sanchez (#73) in 2005, Mike Conley in 2006 (#22), and Anthony Randolph (#16) in 2007 were the only non top 14 kids out of 39 total kids that spent zero or one year in college before going pro. Over this 4 year study, of the players ranked in the top 14 there was a 60.7% chance to make it to the NBA in one or less years (32 of 56 players total).
If you are a top 10 player, your chances improve even more. From 2004 to 2007 the only busts appear to be Malik Hairston, Richard Hendrix and Paul Harris and many of the 2008 prospects are likely NBA players.
The top 15 ranked kids NBA success breakdown is as follows (includes surefire 2009 picks):
2002 10 of 15
2003 11 of 15
2004 12 of 15
2005 12 of 15
2006 13 of 14 (Sherron Collins returning to Kansas)
2007 11 of 11 (4 possibly returning to school)
2008 5 of 5 (10 returning to school)
What Does It Mean?
Of the 90 top 15 candidates that have declared or used up eligibility, 74 have made it to the NBA for a solid duration. That is 82.2% rate. This is quite a testament to the talent evaluators and scouting service folks. Often these scouts have an eye for these elite caliber players from very early years.
FACTS
SENIORS STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO BE DRAFTED!
Jonathon Givoney, the draft guru over at DraftExpress said it best:
“Like it or not, it’s the NCAA seniors that still make up the majority of every NBA draft class. Over the last 14 drafts, there have been 822 total players selected. Of those, 379, or 46%, were seniors. This isn’t just a recent trend—last year 19 of the 60 players drafted were NCAA seniors.”
The reality is that in the eyes of the people that are professionals at what they do, very few but the elite young player is good enough to compete with mature players whether it be at the college level or the NBA level. Based on the statistics from the last 14 years, you could expect that about 28 of the 60 players picked in the NBA Draft will be seniors.
While the recent explosions from freshmen in the past coupe years, the exceptional frosh is just that…an exception to the norm. From the 2008-09 NCAA division 1 college basketball season 32 of 50 top scorers in the country were seniors. 10 were juniors. So 84% of the leading collegiate scoring averages were from upper classmen. Only 7 sophomores and exactly 1 freshman made the list. That lone freshman, Seth Curry, transferred from Liberty to Duke and will sit out this coming year. Of the top 50 leaders in assists, 35 were upperclassmen. College coaches know what they are doing and experience on the court is essential.
CLASS BY CLASS BREAKDOWN
The 2004 class saw 8 players go straight to the league including 7 of the top 9 ranked kids. Only Dorrell Wright at 26 was able to skip college outside the elite level of kids. Marvin Williams at top 10 kid was the only 1 and done. Aundray Blatche and Shawne Williams reclassified making the class totals taken out of 98 since they were included in 2005. Seven kids left after their sophomore year including non-top 20 kids Kyle Lowery and Cedric Simmons. 20 of the 78 kids ranked between 21 and 100 that did not jump to the league or reclassify ended up transferring.
In the 2005 class, 9 went straight to the NBA without going to college with 8 of those being in the top 17. Only international player Ricky Sanchez, who was ranked 73rd, was outside the top core of players to declare. Only 1, Shawne Williams, went pro after a year in college. 4 kids were able to turn pro after their sophomore year, two of which were in the top 8 while#30 Marcus Williams hasn’t stuck after declaring after his sophomore year. #59 Wilson Chandler has stuck on after his 2 year college career. 32 transferred including 31 of the 21st to 100th ranked players.
In 2006 class, eight players were 1 and done players with the new draft rules in effect. Only 1 was outside of the top 14 which was Mike Conley #22. Of the 79 players ranked 21 to 100 that were not in the draft, 24 ultimately transferred or left their school. 7 kids spent 2 years in college and made it to the NBA, 3 of which were top 20 kids, 1 ranked 30, 1 ranked 61 and two major surprises in #114 Russell Westbrook and #150 Ryan Anderson.
In the 2007 class, 12 players were 1 and done with the 1 year of college duty served. All 12 were in the top 16 ranked kids. In the two seasons this class has spent in college, 19 of the 88 kids that did not go pro have already transferred. All 19 were ranked between 28 and 100.
Straight to the League Players
Of the last groups of straight to the NBA guys the cream of the crop of 2004 is Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, and Josh Smith while 2005s best is Andrew Bynum. Of the 17 total players most are role guys and Ricky Sanchez is out of the league.
One and Done Players
All of the 22 one-and-dones over the past 4 drafts have stuck in the league thus far. Between 2004 and 2007 classes, 22 players went after one season and all of those were top 17 kids coming out of high school except Mike Conley who was ranked #22. The average rank for the 22 one and done players is approximately 8th and that includes Mike Conley whose 22 ranking was the only players ranked below 17.
Two and Done Players
Between 2004 thru 2006, there were only 18 sophomores to make it off the lists and 17 made it thus far. Of the ones that made it, 10 were ranked in the top 22 of their respective classes, 3 were ranked 22-37, 2 were 59/61, and 2 were 114/150. All 7 were top 37 in 2004, all 3 of 4 were top 30 in 2005 along with #59, and in 2006 four were top 30, 1 was 61 and two long shot kids made it from at 114 and 150. 2005’s #30 ranked Marcus Williams is out of the league.
CHANCES OF TRANSFERRING
The chances of top 100 kids transferring are staggering. The chart below shows the underclassmen declaring numbers as well as the transfer stats. Just as the number of pros increases with time so does the number of transfers so these numbers will go up.
High School Class
2004 (Howard)
2005 (Green)
2006 (Oden)
2007 (Mayo)
4 Year Totals
Straight to NBA (’04-’05)
8 (8%)
9 (9%)
17/200 (8.5%)
One and Done
1 (1%)
1 (1%)
8 (8%)
12 (12%)
22/400 (5.5%)
Two and Done
7 (7%)
4 (4%)
7 (7%)
TRANSFER STATS
Transfers
20/89 (22.5%)
32/90 (35.6%)
26/92 (28.3%)
19/88 (21.6%)
97/359 (27.0%)
Top 20 Transfers
0/20 (0%)
1/20 (5%)
2/20 (10%)
0/20 (0%)
3/80 (0.4%)
Rank 21-100 Transfers
20/78 (25.6%)
31/78 (39.8%)
24/79 (30.4%)
19/80 (23.8%)
94/320 (29.4%)
The class of ’05 which should be finishing their final year of college had 32 of 100 kids transfer.
The rising seniors have 26 while the junior-to-be class has 19. Several of the kids are multiple school transfers.
FACTS
3 out of 80 (.04%) or less than a half percent of top 20 ranked kids transferred from the ’04 to ’07 high school classes.
Over the players ranked 21-100, 29.4% (94 of 320) have transferred or are no longer at their school for reasons that are not the NBA.
What Does It Mean?
If you take the average class from the last four years, it’s doubtful any of the top 20 kids will transfer. Likely around 24 of the 80 kids ranked 21-100 will not be at their original school.
FACTS
Of the 80 kids ranked 1-20: 49 are in the NBA compared to 3 that transferred.
Of the 320 kids ranked 21-100: 22 are in the NBA compared to 94 that transferred.
What Does It Mean?
If you take the average class from the last four years, 12 of the Top 20 is in the NBA with maybe 1 kid transferring. From the 21-100 range, about 5 out of the 80 kids would be in the NBA with 23 having left their school.
CONCLUSION
What do all these numbers get at?
First I think the top 15 kids are likely to make it. The numbers support it.
Second, the rest of the field has an uphill battle for very, very few spots. The average year shows 78 out of 85 kids from the average class that’s currently in their four year college window are not in the NBA.
Third, I think the talk of being in the NBA as a one-and-done or even leaving after two years is something that should be kept in perspective. Fact is that kids that are ranked between 28 and 150 have about a 1% chance of seeing the NBA draft by the time their sophomore year is over and basically no chance of being a one and done. About 11 of the top 22 in a given class will be in the NBA by the end of their sophomore year and 3 of the kids in the 22-28 range. Beyond that you are a very rare sleeper such as Russell Westbrook or Ryan Anderson.
Fourth, college upper classmen produce the statistical leaders in college basketball and comprise 41% of the players drafted in the last 14 years.
Fifth, if you are not an elite top 20 player the numbers show that you are far more likely to transfer than to be in the NBA. The average makeup of a class in their four year college window would have 23 transfers to 5 NBA players and 52 still with their college team for the 80 kids ranked 21-100. The elite kids will likely have 12 in the NBA with 7 or 8 still working toward it with 1 transfer every other year.
What is the Lesson?
Make the NBA a byproduct of successes at each level. Take advantage of the present and be the best asset you can be where you are at. Looking ahead and micromanaging the system for kids as teenagers is unlikely to get them there. Learning to play the game the right way and putting in the honest work for the right reason should be priority for young players. Competition should bring out the best in players and be all the motivation a true player needs. Teaching humility and perseverance is likely to take a kid much further than self promotion and quitting for greener pastures. Guaranteed starting spots, personal stat driven motives, and me-first agendas are counterproductive in the long run.
More and more scouts and personnel directors are looking for winners and high character, low risk athletes. There is a fine line that separates so many athletes on the court but the statistics show many eliminate themselves because they can’t cut it in the classroom, have off the court issues, can’t handle competition, or get the rap as a bad teammate.
It is likely for a different study at a different time but few American JUCO players make it. Very few of the 94 transfers in the 4 years studied here have made it. As I’ll tell our kids, the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t coming to you. Don’t blame the light and don’t blame the tunnel, put your head down and dig harder.
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