Scouting Perceptions & the Myth of Measureables

Draftexpress.com does an amazing job with their draft and prospect coverage. Recently they compiled a database of predraft measurements spanning the decade. In studying it, I came away with several thoughts.

First, i'm firm believer that measurables lie. Here's a couple thoughts:

What is the value of measuring height from heal to top of head. What value does a head and long neck serve?

I understand measuring height without shoes eliminates the shoe variable but honestly how much of a purpose does it serve considering its a game normally played with shoes.

SCOUTING PERCEPTIONS MYTHS

The labels scouts, announcers, writers, and coaches put on players stick. The image that you conjure up of a player that is "long & athletic" is considerably different than the image u get when a player has "good size & hustles".

There is a big difference when you get an athlete that's labeled a 7-footer and an athlete that is 6'9.

MATCH UP THE MEASURABLES

An interesting way to evaluate this years players is to match the measurables to the athlete. The following 6 athletes and their measurements are randomly scattered below:

Joey Dorsey
Trent Plaisted
Sasha Kaun
Michael Beasley
Darell Arthur
Kevin Love

PROSPECT NUMBER	Height w/o Shoes	Height w/shoes		Wingspan	Standing Reach			Max Vert	Bench Press	Lane Agility	3/4 Court Sprint

PROSPECT 1

6' 9.25"

6' 10.25"

6' 10.5"

30.5

35.5

14

11.32

3.17

PROSPECT 2	6' 6.25"	6' 7.25"		7' 1.75"			27.5	33.0	19	11.84	3.20
PROSPECT 3	6' 7"	6' 8.25"		7' 0.25"			30.0	35.0	19	11.06	3.24
PROSPECT 4	6' 7.75"	6' 9.5"		6' 11.25"			29.5	35.0	18	11.17	3.22

PROSPECT 5

6' 7.5"

6' 8.5"

6' 10.75"

28.5

30.0

12

12.18

3.14

PROSPECT 6

6' 9"

6' 10.75"

7' 6"

29.0

32.0

13

12.06

3.20

SO WHO & WHAT IS "LONG"?

I would surmise that "long" would perhaps equate to wingspan and standing reach. By the numbers then, I'd say Prospect 6 is longest and Prospect 2 is 2nd. If you argue that "long" includes height then I'd say Prospect 3 & 4 gain value.

RANKINGS: LONG = WINGSPAN + STANDING REACH

1.PROSPECT 6 200 combined inches
2.PROSPECT 2 192.75
3.PROSPECT 3 191.25
4.PROSPECT 5 189.75
5.PROSPECT 4 189.25
6.PROSPECT 1 188

By this definition of "Long", Sasha Kaun is longest by far with Joey Dorsey second longest. Michael Beasley and Kevin Love are within 1 percentile of each other in length followed by Darrell Arthur and lastly, Trent Plaisted. Interestingly, Shan Foster is 188 combined and Pat Calathes is a combined 187.75.

If height deserves to be mentioned as part of this attractive "Long" characteristic then the rankings look like this:

RANKINGS: LONG = WINGSPAN + STANDING REACH + HEIGHT

1.PROSPECT 6 281 combined inches
2.PROSPECT 2 271
3.PROSPECT 3 270.25
4.PROSPECT 5 269.25
5.PROSPECT 4 269
6.PROSPECT 1 269.25

By this definition there is practically no difference in "length" between Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Trent Plaisted, Darell Arthur, and Joey Dorsey but if you picture each of these athletes you would see distinctly different body types. On the other hand, Kansas Russian big man Sasha Kaun (PROSPECT) is very long which only translated to 7.1 points and 3.9 rebounds per game.


WHO & WHAT IS ATHLETIC?

The best place to find athletes is probably at a track meet so falling in love with runners and leapers doesn't seem functional for building a basketball team. Consistantly guys are raved about being "a big time athlete". For instance, NBADraft.net described Darrell Arthur as having "tremendous athleticism", "bigtime hops and laterall quickness" and having a "quick, explosive vertical leap". But if leaping ability, agility, and speed are the most common indicators of athleticism it is interesting who is labeled those appealing athletic traits and who is not.

MAX VERTICAL LEAP RANKINGS

1.TRENT PLAISTED 35.5'
2.KEVIN LOVE 35'
2.MICHAEL BEASLEY 35'
4.JOEY DORSEY 33'
5.SASHA KAUN 32'
6.DARELL ARTHUR 30'

LANE AGILITY RANKINGS

1.MICHAEL BEASLEY 11.06
2.KEVIN LOVE 11.17
2.TRENT PLAISTED 11.32
4.JOEY DORSEY 11.84
5.SASHA KAUN 12.06
6.DARELL ARTHUR 12.18

3/4 COURT SPRINT RANKINGS

1.DARELL ARTHUR 3.14
2.TRENT PLAISTED 3.17
4.JOEY DORSEY 3.20
5.SASHA KAUN 3.20
5.KEVIN LOVE 3.22
6.MICHAEL BEASLEY 3.24

Of these 6 players, Trent Plaisted seems to be the big time athlete that is the most athletic and explosive. Kevin Love is faster in the 3/4 court than Beasley, has the same vertical, and is a tenth of a second slower in the lane agility drill. Teammates Sasha Kaun and Darell Arthur are an interesting comparison. Kaun has 2 inches on the vertical, .12 seconds in the lane drill, but is .06 of second slower in the 3/4 court sprint. Kaun is 6'9 and 247 lbs., while Arthur is 6'7.5 and 216 lbs. No where in Kaun's description is he explosive, athletic, or a "big time" athlete. He is described as having "good hustle", "solid agility for a big man", and a "level of energy".

BENEFITS OF MEASUREMENTS

While I think measurements bring little value to the table, I do believe you can gather information about a prospect from some of the numbers. For instance, I think that a player's body fat percentage can tell u how serious a player is about taking care of his body or it can tell you a little bit about the schools strength & conditioning program he comes from. In some instances I'd be excited to see the potential if a player got in elite shape but in other cases I'd see red flags that a player isn't committed to putting himself in the best position to succeed. An example of this is Jason Maxiell who was a very productive college player that was only 6'5 without shoes but had the 4th largest wingspan of those in the 2005 draft. More importantly, he had plenty of production. The fact that he produced as a 258lb. wide body made the intrigue of his potential when he changed his body that much more enticing.

In addition, measurements provide another tool of analysis but should be kept in perspective. Measuring production and those things you cannot put a number on such as effort and desire may be the best indicators of success.

Seeing Basketball Through the Football Lens

A HIGH SCHOOL COACH POSTED SOME NOTES FROM A RICH RODRIGUEZ MICHIGAN FOOTBALL CLINIC THAT MADE ITS WAY ONTO BOSCHEMBLOGGER.COM.

I THINK A LOT OF WHAT THEY COVER CAN APPLY TO BASKETBALL. MY COMMENTS ARE IN CAPS.

HERE ARE THE RE-PRODUCED NOTES:

Rich Rodriguez:

Conditioning is the most underrated thing in football.

This is how Coach R Rod recommends teaching his offense:
-- #1 teach from back end up: teach RBs and QBs 1st and then to slots, Olinemen and SEs.
-- #2, Shrink what the defense can do, this gives you less to prepare for and makes reads and blocking the defense easier.
-- #3, Attack the defense where they are not, make them run to cover you, either high to low, or east to west.
-- #4, Make them defend what they are defending. If defense is trying to take away RB in QB read option, make them defend the RB before using QB.
-- #5 QB gives the defense a false snap look to fake defense into tipping what they are doing. After this coaches will take 2nd read of defense and signal new play/scheme to QB.

I AGREE THAT CONDITIONING IS UNDERRATED ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS A CONTROLLABLE ASPECT OF PREPARATION. I LIKE #2, WHERE I THINK IN BASKETBALL, PLAYING UP TEMPO AND NOT LETTING DEFENSES GET SET CAN OPEN 0PPURTUNITIES. #3/#4 REMIND ME OF THE PHILOSOPHIES OF PUTTING YOUR LIMITED PLAYERS IN POSITION TO BE DEFENDED, STRETCHING DEFENSES WITH SHOOTERS WIDE OR SPACING UP, RUNNING WINGS TO THE CORNERS, AND MAKING YOUR BIGS "RUN THE HIGHWAY" OR AS LARRY BROWNS SAYS "STAY AHEAD OF THE BALL ON OFFENSE & DEFENSE".


Coach Calvin Magee, Michigan Football Associate Head Coach & Offensive Coordinator:

Coach Magee used a slightly different tact in his lecture. He gave us two lists of things the offense needs to accomplish, or make the defense do.

1st list is things offense needs to do.
-- 1. Create mismatches- biggest is slots on OLBers or safeties
-- 2. Get the ball to your play makers
-- 3. Use Shotgun/so QB can see the defense
-- 4. Make the defense defend all skill players, including the QB
-- 5. Keep it simple for the O line, confused O-linemen can kill an offense faster than anything.
-- 6. Make the defense play in space

THESE ARE RIGHT ON THE MONEY FOR GREAT BASKETBALL OFFENSE:
1. CREATING AND CAPITALIZING ON MISMATCHES IS GREAT OFFENSE BUT OFTEN GOES EITHER UNIDENTIFIED OR UTILIZED. THE NBA SEEMS TO BE ALL ABOUT MATCH UPS.

2. PLAYMAKERS: RIGHT PLAYER, RIGHT SHOT.

4. MAKE DEFENSES DEFEND ALL SKILL PLAYERS: SPACING, CUTTING, SCREENING

5. KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID: AVOID PARALYSIS BY ANALYSIS

6. MAKE THE DEFENSE PLAY IN SPACE: SOUNDS LIKE THE DRIBBLE DRIVE MOTION THATS ALL OVER

Magee's 2nd list is what offense does in a game.
-- 1. make defenses defend the entire field ... QB has presnap and post snap reads (BREAK, SECONDARY BREAK, CHANGING SIDES OF THE FLOOR, MAINTAIN SPACING & CREATE/EXPLOIT THE MISMATCH)
-- 2. Always play at multiple tempos to keep defense off balance and control their substitution patterns (DRIBBLE HAND OFFS, BACK CUTS, HANDBACKS, BACK PICKS, DIVES, POPS, SLIP SCREENS ACHIEVE SIMILAR PURPOSE IF MIXED IN AN OFFENSE)
-- 3.make defense prepare for dual threat QB, both run and pass (GOTTA HAVE PLAYERS THAT CAN DO MULTIPLE SKILLS INCLUDING THE BASICS OF SHOOTING, DRIBBLING, PASSING)
-- 4. EXECUTION- You want a simple, not predictable offense. (BE GOOD AT SOMETHING RATHER THAN BAD AT A LOT OF THINGS)
-- 5. Execute your base plays to perfection: Reps and Reps, and more reps, get good at something! (WHATS YOUR IDENTITY, GET GOOD ENOUGH THAT THEY KNOW ITS COMING AND YOU STILL EXECUTE)
-- 6. numbers game
----- a. 1st key number is 1 or 2 safeties. it tells you what OLBers and CBs are going to do.
------ b. How many defenders in box is next read
(ON THE DRIBBLE DRIVE, WHATS YOUR READS: WHERE IS THE HELP COMING FROM? HOW DEEP CAN YOU GET? WHERES MY SHOOTERS DEFENDER?)
-- 7. Create best angles to block for both linemen and SEs (SET UP SCREENS, HOWS MY SCREENER SET, DRIVE THE BLOCKS & ELBOWS, KEEP 15' SPACING)
-- 8. And the final one - Find Empty Grass! (FIND THE RIM, FIND OPEN SHOTS. BASKETBALL IS PLAYING THE NUMBERS GAME: GETTING TO THE RIM PRODUCES POINTS IN A NUMBER OF WAYS. GETTING SHOOTERS SHOTS WITH THEIR FEET SET AND A CLEAR LOOK IS LIKE RUNNING TO DAYLIGHT)

NBA DRAFT: Which Schools Produce Picks?

THE AUTHOR DID A GREAT JOB WITH A CHART WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF ALL THE SCHOOLS & CONFERENCES THAT PRODUCED A PICK SINCE 2000.

CHECK OUT THE LINK: http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=820905

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PAC-10 SENT THE MOST TO THE DRAFT PER SCHOOL AND THAT THE ACC SENT THE MOST IN THE FIRST ROUND.

A COUPLE 'WOWS' IN THERE SUCH AS FRESNO HAVING MORE PICKS THAN KENTUCKY, INDIANA, ARKANSAS, OR LOUISVILLE.

AFTER THIS YEARS DRAFT, ONLY 6 BIG SIX CONFERENCE SCHOOLS HAVEN'T HAD A DRAFT PICK: Baylor, Clemson, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon State, & Penn State.

ALSO SURPRISING IS THE LACK OF PICKS FROM THE MID-MAJORS OVER THE 7 YEAR SPAN SUCH AS THE MISSOURI VALLEY (1 PICK), MAC (2 PICKS), CAA (1 PICK), AND SEVERAL OTHERS.


CONFERENCE RANKING DRAFT PICKS PER TEAM ('00 THRU '07)
1.PAC 10 4.70
2.ACC 4.33
3.BIG EAST 3.38
4.BIG TEN 3.27
5.SEC 3.17
6.BIG 12 2.75
7.A-10 1.20
8.WAC 1.11
9.MWC .89
10.CONF USA .67
11.WCC .63

ALL OTHERS .08 (18 PICKS FOR 226 TEAMS)

MAC 1 pick, MVC 2, BIG SKY 1, BIG WEST 1, COLONIAL 1,
HORIZON 1, METRO 3, NEC 1, OVC 3, SOUTHERN 1, SUN BELT 3, INDEPENDENTS 1


Andrew Skwara
Rivals.com College Basketball Staff Writer

BY THE NUMBERS: NBA Draft picks by school, 2000-2007

Only one conference has had each of its teams produce at least one NBA draft pick this decade – but it's probably not the one you are thinking of.

The football-crazed SEC holds that unique distinction, and it's not as if half the league is just reaching the minimum requirement. Ten of the 12 SEC schools have produced multiple picks since 2000.

Rivals.com looked at each draft this decade and where the prospects played in college. While we found that the NBA-caliber talent in the SEC is particularly widespread, we also found that it isn't particularly abundant.

The Big East has combined for 56 draft picks over the time span, the most of any of the "Big Six" conferences. The SEC has 38, which is fourth, behind the ACC (52) and Pac-10 (47) but ahead of the Big Ten (36) and the Big 12 (33). The Big East has a significant advantage in that it expanded to 16 teams three years ago. For the purpose of this exercise, a school's current conference affiliation is what matters.

The "Big Six" league with the highest average of picks per school is the Pac-10, with an average of 4.7 per its 10 schools.

Only 19 (40 percent) of those were first-round picks. The ACC has produced 30 first-round picks, which makes up 64 percent of its 52 picks, the highest percentage among the "Big Six." The Big 12 is second with 20 of its 33 (60 percent) being first-rounders.

Duke's 12 picks are the most of any school this decade. UCLA has 10 picks and will add at least two more Thursday night. UCLA sophomore Russell Westbrook and freshman Kevin Love almost assuredly will be taken among the top 20 picks. Junior Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is not considered a first-round pick but could go in the second.

Duke has one player eligible for the draft, DeMarcus Nelson, and he isn't expected to be drafted.

Connecticut has produced the most first-round picks – eight – of any school this decade. The Huskies tied a record with four first-rounders (Rudy Gay, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams and Josh Boone) in the 2006 draft.

The non-"Big Six" school with the most draftees is Fresno State with five, which is more than 33 "Big Six" schools, including Kentucky (four), Indiana (four), Arkansas (two) and Louisville (two).

Ten "Big Six" schools haven't had a player drafted this decade: Baylor, Clemson, Kansas State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon State, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Washington State and West Virginia. That list promises to shrink soon. Kansas State's Michael Beasley, Rivals.com's 2007-08 national player of the year, is expected to go No. 1 or No. 2 during Thursday's draft. Beasley will be the first Wildcat drafted since Steve Henson in 1990. West Virginia's Joe Alexander is projected as a first-rounder as well. He would be the first Mountaineer drafted since Gordon Malone in 1997.

There have been nearly as many international players drafted (106) than the combined picks produced from the Big 12, Big Ten and the SEC (107).

College Basketball: Transfers are causing instability

THE TRANSFER LISTS ARE LONG THIS YEAR BUT IN THE BIG PICTURE WHERE THERE IS 330 OR SO DIVISION 1 PROGRAMS, THE OVER 120 TRANSFERS IS NOT THAT STAGGERING TO ME. WE STRESS TO OUR KIDS THAT THEY NEED TO FIND THE PROGRAM AND COACH THAT IS THE RIGHT "FIT". SINCE PLAYING TIME IS NORMALLY THE ROOT OF THE ISSUE, PERHAPS MORE EVALUATION TIME IS THE SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM SO THAT COACHES DON'T "MISS" ON KIDS AND PLAYERS DON'T GET IN OVER THEIR HEAD.

Published Friday June 13, 2008

BY LEE BARFKNECHT
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER

When major college basketball coaches discuss climate change, global warming isn't on their minds.

The climate they talk about is cultural, and involves the willingness of players to change schools in what seems to be ever-increasing numbers.

"It is just amazing how many players have decided to transfer this spring — over 120 and counting," recruiting analyst Van Coleman of Hoopmasters.com and CSTV wrote recently.

The NCAA thought it would reduce transfers and the practice of some coaches "running off" players by instituting academic progress guidelines known as the APR. Programs can be penalized scholarships and practice time for too much roster flipping if those who leave aren't academically on track.

Consider that mission not accomplished.

"The climate in our sport has become such a 'what have you done for me lately approach,'" Iowa State coach Greg McDermott said.

"If things don't happen immediately, not only are the young people not patient enough, but the adults advising them are not patient, either."

Transferring has been common through the years among benchwarmers seeking more playing time or players wanting to escape struggling programs.

But this spring, heavy anecdotal evidence shows regulars at top programs moving on.

NCAA tourney qualifier Georgetown had three players transfer, two of whom played in 34 games each. The Hoyas then got a transfer who played in 31 games for NIT qualifier Florida State.

Purdue, an NCAA team, saw freshman Scott Martin take off for Notre Dame even after starting eight games and playing in 32. Notre Dame also picked up sophomore Ben Hansbrough, who started 28 games at Mississippi State last season and averaged 10.5 points a game.

"I don't understand," Nebraska coach Doc Sadler said, "how kids transfer when they are playing quality minutes in a great conference and are doing well in school."

Iowa State was stung last month when sophomore forward Wesley Johnson, a two-year starter and a Big 12 all-freshman pick in 2007, emptied his apartment without telling coaches or teammates, went home to Texas and announced he would transfer.

"It's difficult in May to replace guys you were really counting on," McDermott said. "But it's kind of become the nature of this business, unfortunately."

Is more stability on the horizon?

"I hope so," McDermott said. "This job is hard enough the way it is."

Texas Tech coach Pat Knight isn't counting on happier days just ahead.

"I've had a problem with kids going home and parents getting in their ear and saying, 'Maybe his style of play isn't suited for you,'" Knight said. "It's getting out of hand.

"They all want a quick fix, and they all want to play right away. It's a real pain."

Parents aren't the only adults inserting themselves into college athletes' lives.

Knight said he got an oral commitment from a player this spring, then couldn't reach him for a couple of weeks.

"I find out he has taken two other visits and decides to go somewhere else," Knight said. "His AAU coach got hold of him. Too many people have their hands on these kids."

The reach of others doesn't just start in college, coaches say.

"We're seeing more and more kids in high school change schools," Sadler said. "And we see more and more kids start on one summer team and end up playing on two or three others by the end of the summer."

Sadler said coaches tried to warn those pushing NCAA legislation such as the old 5-and-8 rule and the current APR that such measures wouldn't necessarily stabilize rosters.

"Those things were implemented as if coaches were just running kids in and out of their programs," he said. "It's not so much a coach getting rid of kids as it is kids leaving on their own."

All three coaches interviewed said many players discover transferring doesn't cure all their ills.

Nebraska sophomore guard Jay-R Strowbridge left this spring, publicly saying it was for family reasons. But phone calls from family members made it plain that their desire for him to be a featured player was a key factor.

Strowbridge, who averaged 18.7 minutes a game at NU, hasn't found a new school yet. Those showing the most interest, sources said, are Jacksonville (Ala.) State of the Ohio Valley Conference and Middle Tennessee State of the Sun Belt.

How do coaches move on after players leave?

"You stay committed to the guys who remain," McDermott said. "And you map out a plan early in their career for your expectations — and then try to get the parents or the high school coach or the AAU coach to agree with what you're asking them to do."